Bangkok

Will the Rama III–Dao Khanong expressway open this year?

42%+0
1y left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ238 if YES wins

28%51%

Volume

Ɓ36K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ4.3K

Closes

22 Sept 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.42
CostƁ4.20
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +138%
payout multiple2.38x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.37

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 42% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 0 pts on a cabinet reshuffle rumor. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 68%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

75%
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter

Key developments

  1. A cabinet reshuffle rumor shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

CS

@chaisaetae · 2d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

TP

@tle.p · 2d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

NS

@napat_trades · 3d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

Related markets

Bangkok

Bangkok PM2.5 to exceed 100 µg/m³ in January 2026?

41%+8

110 · Ɓ143K

3mo left

Bangkok

More than 20 flood days in Bangkok this rainy season?

29%-6

80 · Ɓ63K

11mo left

Bangkok

Will Bangkok be announced as an F1 street race host in 2026?

39%-4

59 · Ɓ76K

4mo left

Bangkok

Will Bangkok be announced as an F1 street race host in 2027?

14%-8

48 · Ɓ66K

3mo left

Bangkok

Will Bangkok introduce congestion pricing before 2028?

6%-3

90 · Ɓ112K

11mo left

Bangkok

Will Bangkok's BRT be extended to a new route by 2027?

39%+2

48 · Ɓ38K

1mo left

Related news

Transit· Bangkok Post· 1d

Orange Line monorail test runs begin on new section

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: BTS/MRT operator bulletins · Bangkok Post. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
#infrastructure