Bangkok

Will Bangkok be announced as an F1 street race host in 2026?

39%-4
4mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ256 if YES wins

26%47%

Volume

Ɓ76K

Traders

59

Liquidity

Ɓ9.1K

Closes

1 Jan 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.39
CostƁ3.90
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +156%
payout multiple2.56x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.07

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 39% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 4 pts on a cabinet reshuffle rumor. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 66%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

84%
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter

Key developments

  1. A cabinet reshuffle rumor shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

YR

@yodrak · 5h

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 1d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

CS

@chaisaetae · 4d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

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Ɓ100 → Ɓ256 if YES wins

Related news

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Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: BTS/MRT operator bulletins · Bangkok Post. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •The measure has broad public support in recent surveys
#f1#sports