Bangkok

Will Bangkok introduce congestion pricing before 2028?

6%-3
11mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ1,667 if YES wins

0%15%

Volume

Ɓ112K

Traders

90

Liquidity

Ɓ13K

Closes

25 Jul 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.06
CostƁ0.60
Trading feeƁ0.04
Max payoutƁ10 · +1567%
payout multiple16.67x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ0.64

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 6% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 3 pts on coalition negotiations. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 65%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

89%
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions

Key developments

  1. A new opinion poll shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

IK

@isankid · 1d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

NA

@nokairin · 1d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

RM

@ratchata · 3d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

RM

@ratchata · 3d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

IK

@isankid · 5d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

PS

@peaks · 5d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

AB

@arthitb · 5d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

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Ɓ100 → Ɓ256 if YES wins

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Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: BTS/MRT operator bulletins · Bangkok Post. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month
#policy