Bangkok

Will the Orange Line monorail open by Dec 2026?

67%-2
11d left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ149 if YES wins

59%84%

Volume

Ɓ15K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.9K

Closes

5 Sept 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.67
CostƁ6.70
Trading feeƁ0.15
Max payoutƁ10 · +49%
payout multiple1.49x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ6.85

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 67% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 2 pts on coalition negotiations. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 61%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

71%
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions

Key developments

  1. A new opinion poll shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (6)

MS

@malisrisuk · 1d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

SP

@somchai_p · 1d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

BK

@bua.k · 1d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

MS

@malisrisuk · 3d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

PS

@peaks · 4d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

MR

@mayr · 4d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

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Related news

Transit· Bangkok Post· 1d

Orange Line monorail test runs begin on new section

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: BTS/MRT operator bulletins · Bangkok Post. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
#transit