Economy

Will the nationwide minimum wage reach ฿400 in 2026?

42%+3
1y left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ238 if YES wins

32%58%

Volume

Ɓ433K

Traders

591

Liquidity

Ɓ52K

Closes

5 Sept 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.42
CostƁ4.20
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +138%
payout multiple2.38x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.37

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 42% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 3 pts on a policy announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 88%.

Bull case

  • Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
  • Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year

Bear case

  • A global slowdown remains the key risk to external demand
  • Household debt near record highs limits consumption growth

Confidence

66%
  • The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times
  • Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this

Key developments

  1. A currency move shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (8)

BK

@bua.k · 1d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

AB

@arthitb · 1d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

CS

@chaisaetae · 2d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

BK

@bua.k · 2d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

TP

@tle.p · 2d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

SP

@somchai_p · 3d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

SP

@somchai_p · 4d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

BK

@bua.k · 4d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

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Related news

Economy· Bangkok Post· 4h

Bank of Thailand signals room for one more cut this year

Stocks· SET News· 1d

SET rallies past 1,380 on foreign inflows

Economy· Reuters· 2d

Baht strengthens to 34.2 against the dollar

Resolution criteria

Resolves on official data from the Bank of Thailand, NSO, SEC, or SET as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Bank of Thailand · SET announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times
  • •Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • •Policy easing is beginning to support domestic demand
#wages