Economy

SET Index above 1,400 by June?

44%+6
5mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ227 if YES wins

30%56%

Volume

Ɓ332K

Traders

173

Liquidity

Ɓ40K

Closes

6 Feb 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.44
CostƁ4.40
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +127%
payout multiple2.27x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.57

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 44% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 6 pts on a policy announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 89%.

Bull case

  • Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
  • Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year

Bear case

  • A global slowdown remains the key risk to external demand
  • Household debt near record highs limits consumption growth

Confidence

70%
  • The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times
  • The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times

Key developments

  1. A policy announcement shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

KW

@kanya.w · 2h

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

YR

@yodrak · 1d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

MP

@minta.p · 2d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

GL

@grace.l · 4d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

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Related news

Economy· Bangkok Post· 4h

Bank of Thailand signals room for one more cut this year

Stocks· SET News· 1d

SET rallies past 1,380 on foreign inflows

Economy· Reuters· 2d

Baht strengthens to 34.2 against the dollar

Resolution criteria

Resolves on official data from the Bank of Thailand, NSO, SEC, or SET as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Bank of Thailand · SET announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times
  • •The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times
  • •Policy easing is beginning to support domestic demand
#set#stocks