Economy

Gold price up on 26 Aug?

51%+3
5mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ196 if YES wins

39%61%

Volume

Ɓ12K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.4K

Closes

28 Jan 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.51
CostƁ5.10
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +96%
payout multiple1.96x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.27

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 51% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved up 3 pts on a trade data release. Top-trader positioning is balanced, and our model confidence is 84%.

Bull case

  • Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
  • Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year

Bear case

  • A global slowdown remains the key risk to external demand
  • Household debt near record highs limits consumption growth

Confidence

89%
  • Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar

Key developments

  1. A trade data release shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (5)

RM

@ratchata · 13h

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

MP

@minta.p · 17h

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

MR

@mayr · 21h

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

IK

@isankid · 2d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

NA

@nokairin · 2d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

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Related news

Economy· Bangkok Post· 4h

Bank of Thailand signals room for one more cut this year

Stocks· SET News· 1d

SET rallies past 1,380 on foreign inflows

Economy· Reuters· 2d

Baht strengthens to 34.2 against the dollar

Resolution criteria

Resolves on official data from the Bank of Thailand, NSO, SEC, or SET as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Bank of Thailand · SET announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • •BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar
  • •Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
#daily