Economy

SET Index to close higher on 29 Aug?

42%+1
3mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ238 if YES wins

27%56%

Volume

Ɓ19K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ2.3K

Closes

11 Dec 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.42
CostƁ4.20
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +138%
payout multiple2.38x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.37

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 42% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 1 pts on a trade data release. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 81%.

Bull case

  • Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
  • Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year

Bear case

  • A global slowdown remains the key risk to external demand
  • Household debt near record highs limits consumption growth

Confidence

88%
  • Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times

Key developments

  1. A trade data release shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

RM

@ratchata · 11h

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

PN

@ploykn · 14h

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

TK

@tanawatk · 18h

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

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Related news

Stocks· SET News· 1d

SET rallies past 1,380 on foreign inflows

Economy· Bangkok Post· 4h

Bank of Thailand signals room for one more cut this year

Economy· Reuters· 2d

Baht strengthens to 34.2 against the dollar

Resolution criteria

Resolves on official data from the Bank of Thailand, NSO, SEC, or SET as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Bank of Thailand · SET announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • •The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times
  • •Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year
#daily