Economy

Gold price up on 27 Aug?

51%+3
4mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ196 if YES wins

34%60%

Volume

Ɓ473K

Traders

292

Liquidity

Ɓ57K

Closes

15 Jan 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.51
CostƁ5.10
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +96%
payout multiple1.96x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.27

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 51% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved up 3 pts on a trade data release. Top-trader positioning is balanced, and our model confidence is 82%.

Bull case

  • Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
  • Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year

Bear case

  • A global slowdown remains the key risk to external demand
  • Household debt near record highs limits consumption growth

Confidence

79%
  • Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times

Key developments

  1. The latest BOT minutes shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (6)

MP

@minta.p · 1d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

AB

@arthitb · 1d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

NS

@napat_trades · 3d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

FS

@fahsai · 3d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

TP

@tle.p · 4d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

RM

@ratchata · 5d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

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Related news

Economy· Bangkok Post· 4h

Bank of Thailand signals room for one more cut this year

Stocks· SET News· 1d

SET rallies past 1,380 on foreign inflows

Economy· Reuters· 2d

Baht strengthens to 34.2 against the dollar

Resolution criteria

Resolves on official data from the Bank of Thailand, NSO, SEC, or SET as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Bank of Thailand · SET announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • •The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times
  • •Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year
#daily