Economy

Will the Bank of Thailand cut rates at its next meeting?

45%+1
8mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ222 if YES wins

36%60%

Volume

Ɓ640K

Traders

626

Liquidity

Ɓ77K

Closes

8 May 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.45
CostƁ4.50
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +122%
payout multiple2.22x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.67

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 45% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 1 pts on a currency move. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 85%.

Bull case

  • Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
  • Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year

Bear case

  • A global slowdown remains the key risk to external demand
  • Household debt near record highs limits consumption growth

Confidence

59%
  • BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar
  • Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this

Key developments

  1. The latest BOT minutes shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

AB

@arthitb · 1d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

NP

@nongploy · 1d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

CS

@chaisaetae · 3d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

IK

@isankid · 3d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

NP

@nongploy · 3d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

MS

@malisrisuk · 4d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

BK

@bua.k · 5d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

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Related news

Economy· Bangkok Post· 4h

Bank of Thailand signals room for one more cut this year

Stocks· SET News· 1d

SET rallies past 1,380 on foreign inflows

Economy· Reuters· 2d

Baht strengthens to 34.2 against the dollar

Resolution criteria

Resolves on official data from the Bank of Thailand, NSO, SEC, or SET as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Bank of Thailand · SET announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar
  • •Consensus forecasts cluster near the threshold — small surprises decide this
  • •Policy easing is beginning to support domestic demand
#rates#bot