Crypto

Will Thai crypto exchange volumes exceed last year's peak?

42%-8
7mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ238 if YES wins

31%58%

Volume

Ɓ85K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ10K

Closes

9 Apr 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.42
CostƁ4.20
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +138%
payout multiple2.38x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.37

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 42% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 8 pts on a large ETF flow print. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 66%.

Bull case

  • Spot ETF inflows have been net positive for six straight weeks
  • Post-halving supply dynamics have historically supported price 12–18 months out

Bear case

  • Macro tightening could drain risk appetite from speculative assets
  • Regulatory overhang remains in two of the largest markets

Confidence

74%
  • Historical base rate for similar thresholds over comparable windows is ~45–55%
  • Options-implied probabilities sit within a few points of market price

Key developments

  1. Fed commentary shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (8)

WK

@wink · 15h

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

MS

@malisrisuk · 1d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 1d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

TK

@tanawatk · 2d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

SP

@somchai_p · 3d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

YR

@yodrak · 3d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

AB

@arthitb · 4d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

NP

@nongploy · 5d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves using the CoinGecko USD price at 12:00 UTC on the closing date.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: CoinGecko closing prices (UTC). Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Historical base rate for similar thresholds over comparable windows is ~45–55%
  • •Options-implied probabilities sit within a few points of market price
  • •Post-halving supply dynamics have historically supported price 12–18 months out
#exchange