Crypto

Bitcoin above $100,000 on Oct 31, 2027?

39%+9
7mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ256 if YES wins

28%50%

Volume

Ɓ168K

Traders

142

Liquidity

Ɓ20K

Closes

16 Apr 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.39
CostƁ3.90
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +156%
payout multiple2.56x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.07

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 39% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 9 pts on a whale wallet movement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 89%.

Bull case

  • Spot ETF inflows have been net positive for six straight weeks
  • Post-halving supply dynamics have historically supported price 12–18 months out

Bear case

  • Macro tightening could drain risk appetite from speculative assets
  • Regulatory overhang remains in two of the largest markets

Confidence

71%
  • Options-implied probabilities sit within a few points of market price
  • This market tends to gap on US macro print days

Key developments

  1. A whale wallet movement shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

SP

@somchai_p · 49m

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

FS

@fahsai · 14h

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

MS

@malisrisuk · 2d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

AB

@arthitb · 2d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

BK

@bua.k · 3d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

NS

@napat_trades · 3d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

PT

@preawt · 5d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

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Related news

Crypto· CoinDesk· 7h

Bitcoin reclaims $100K as ETF inflows hit weekly record

Crypto· Bangkok Post· 1d

SEC mulls over retail crypto rules revision

Resolution criteria

Resolves using the CoinGecko USD price at 12:00 UTC on the closing date.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: CoinGecko closing prices (UTC). Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Options-implied probabilities sit within a few points of market price
  • •This market tends to gap on US macro print days
  • •Post-halving supply dynamics have historically supported price 12–18 months out
#btc#price