Crypto

Bitcoin to close higher on 25 Aug?

57%-8
7mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ175 if YES wins

42%71%

Volume

Ɓ36K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ4.3K

Closes

23 Mar 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.57
CostƁ5.70
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +75%
payout multiple1.75x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.87

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 57% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 8 pts on the weekly options expiry. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 70%.

Bull case

  • Spot ETF inflows have been net positive for six straight weeks
  • Post-halving supply dynamics have historically supported price 12–18 months out

Bear case

  • Macro tightening could drain risk appetite from speculative assets
  • Regulatory overhang remains in two of the largest markets

Confidence

89%
  • This market tends to gap on US macro print days
  • Options-implied probabilities sit within a few points of market price

Key developments

  1. A whale wallet movement shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

TP

@tle.p · 2d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

TP

@tle.p · 3d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

NA

@nokairin · 4d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves using the CoinGecko USD price at 12:00 UTC on the closing date.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: CoinGecko closing prices (UTC). Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •This market tends to gap on US macro print days
  • •Options-implied probabilities sit within a few points of market price
  • •Post-halving supply dynamics have historically supported price 12–18 months out
#daily