Muay Thai

Will Tawanchai win his next ONE MMA bout?

55%-6
8mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ182 if YES wins

42%63%

Volume

Ɓ108K

Traders

78

Liquidity

Ɓ13K

Closes

4 May 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.55
CostƁ5.50
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +82%
payout multiple1.82x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.67

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 55% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 6 pts on the weekend's results. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 87%.

Bull case

  • Key players return from injury; full-strength squad confirmed in training
  • Recent head-to-head record clearly favors the 'Yes' side

Bear case

  • Fixture congestion across three competitions raises rotation risk
  • Away form has dipped with only one win in the last five

Confidence

92%
  • Betting-implied models and market pricing have converged within ~3 points
  • The last five comparable fixtures produced a 60% hit rate for this outcome

Key developments

  1. A surprise lineup change shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (6)

IK

@isankid · 9h

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

TP

@tle.p · 1d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

KW

@kanya.w · 1d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 3d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 4d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

GL

@grace.l · 4d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on the official result published by the competition organizer (league, AFC, FIFA, or ONE Championship).

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Official stadium result sheets. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Betting-implied models and market pricing have converged within ~3 points
  • •The last five comparable fixtures produced a 60% hit rate for this outcome
  • •Home advantage has historically been worth ~8 points in this fixture
#one-championship#mma