Muay Thai

Will a Thai fighter win ONE Fighter of the Year?

59%+9
1y left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ169 if YES wins

47%71%

Volume

Ɓ59K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ7.1K

Closes

10 Oct 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.59
CostƁ5.90
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +69%
payout multiple1.69x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ6.07

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 59% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved up 9 pts on a surprise lineup change. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 78%.

Bull case

  • Key players return from injury; full-strength squad confirmed in training
  • Recent head-to-head record clearly favors the 'Yes' side

Bear case

  • Fixture congestion across three competitions raises rotation risk
  • Away form has dipped with only one win in the last five

Confidence

75%
  • Betting-implied models and market pricing have converged within ~3 points
  • The last five comparable fixtures produced a 60% hit rate for this outcome

Key developments

  1. The weekend's results shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

BK

@bua.k · 10h

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

BT

@banktawan · 19h

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

SP

@somchai_p · 2d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

PN

@ploykn · 4d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

RM

@ratchata · 4d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

MR

@mayr · 5d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 5d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on the official result published by the competition organizer (league, AFC, FIFA, or ONE Championship).

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Official stadium result sheets. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Betting-implied models and market pricing have converged within ~3 points
  • •The last five comparable fixtures produced a 60% hit rate for this outcome
  • •Home advantage has historically been worth ~8 points in this fixture
#one-championship