Food

Will durian exports exceed ฿100 billion this year?

52%-5
8mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ192 if YES wins

37%64%

Volume

Ɓ579K

Traders

242

Liquidity

Ɓ70K

Closes

18 May 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.52
CostƁ5.20
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +92%
payout multiple1.92x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.37

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 52% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 5 pts on an organizer announcement. Top-trader positioning is balanced, and our model confidence is 72%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

78%
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators

Key developments

  1. A sponsor update shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

PT

@preawt · 1d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

NA

@nokairin · 1d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

BK

@bua.k · 2d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

TK

@tanawatk · 3d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

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Related news

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Michelin Guide Bangkok 2026: what to expect

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Michelin Guide announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • •Government promotion budgets for this event were increased
#export#durian