Food

Will Bangkok gain a new Michelin 3-star in 2026?

31%-5
2mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ323 if YES wins

23%49%

Volume

Ɓ29K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ3.5K

Closes

10 Nov 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.31
CostƁ3.10
Trading feeƁ0.15
Max payoutƁ10 · +223%
payout multiple3.23x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.25

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 31% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 5 pts on early ticket sales. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 63%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

92%
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators

Key developments

  1. An organizer announcement shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

YR

@yodrak · 16h

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

YR

@yodrak · 1d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

IK

@isankid · 1d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

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Related news

Food· Bangkok Post· 22h

Michelin Guide Bangkok 2026: what to expect

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Michelin Guide announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • •Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
#michelin