Food

Will Bangkok gain a new Michelin 3-star in 2027?

23%-7
1y left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ435 if YES wins

14%34%

Volume

Ɓ30K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ3.6K

Closes

17 Sept 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.23
CostƁ2.30
Trading feeƁ0.12
Max payoutƁ10 · +335%
payout multiple4.35x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ2.42

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 23% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 7 pts on an organizer announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 68%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

84%
  • Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year

Key developments

  1. A sponsor update shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

PS

@peaks · 2d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

GL

@grace.l · 3d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

NS

@napat_trades · 3d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

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Related news

Food· Bangkok Post· 22h

Michelin Guide Bangkok 2026: what to expect

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Michelin Guide announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •International media coverage is trending positive
#michelin