Bangkok

Will BTS base fares rise above ฿17 by mid-2026?

39%+4
1y left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ256 if YES wins

28%57%

Volume

Ɓ554K

Traders

295

Liquidity

Ɓ67K

Closes

26 Aug 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.39
CostƁ3.90
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +156%
payout multiple2.56x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.07

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 39% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 4 pts on coalition negotiations. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 63%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

85%
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions

Key developments

  1. A parliamentary session shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (5)

MS

@malisrisuk · 1d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

PN

@ploykn · 2d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

RM

@ratchata · 2d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

MP

@minta.p · 3d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

AB

@arthitb · 3d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

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Related news

Transit· Bangkok Post· 1d

Orange Line monorail test runs begin on new section

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: BTS/MRT operator bulletins · Bangkok Post. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •The measure has broad public support in recent surveys
#transit#fares