Crypto

Will Bitcoin dominance stay above 55% at year end?

47%+5
6mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ213 if YES wins

37%57%

Volume

Ɓ134K

Traders

137

Liquidity

Ɓ16K

Closes

28 Feb 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.47
CostƁ4.70
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +113%
payout multiple2.13x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.87

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 47% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 5 pts on a large ETF flow print. Top-trader positioning is balanced, and our model confidence is 67%.

Bull case

  • Spot ETF inflows have been net positive for six straight weeks
  • Post-halving supply dynamics have historically supported price 12–18 months out

Bear case

  • Macro tightening could drain risk appetite from speculative assets
  • Regulatory overhang remains in two of the largest markets

Confidence

66%
  • Historical base rate for similar thresholds over comparable windows is ~45–55%
  • Options-implied probabilities sit within a few points of market price

Key developments

  1. Fed commentary shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (8)

YR

@yodrak · 2h

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

YR

@yodrak · 3h

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

TP

@tle.p · 13h

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

GL

@grace.l · 2d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

MP

@minta.p · 3d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

MP

@minta.p · 3d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

NP

@nongploy · 4d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

TK

@tanawatk · 5d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

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Related news

Crypto· CoinDesk· 7h

Bitcoin reclaims $100K as ETF inflows hit weekly record

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SEC mulls over retail crypto rules revision

Resolution criteria

Resolves using the CoinGecko USD price at 12:00 UTC on the closing date.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: CoinGecko closing prices (UTC). Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Historical base rate for similar thresholds over comparable windows is ~45–55%
  • •Options-implied probabilities sit within a few points of market price
  • •Institutional custody approvals continue to expand across Asia
#btc#market