Festivals

Songkran 2026: over 1M tourists celebrating in Chiang Mai?

38%-4
10mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ263 if YES wins

27%50%

Volume

Ɓ160K

Traders

76

Liquidity

Ɓ19K

Closes

24 Jun 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.38
CostƁ3.80
Trading feeƁ0.16
Max payoutƁ10 · +163%
payout multiple2.63x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.96

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 38% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 4 pts on social media trends. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 71%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

69%
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions

Key developments

  1. An organizer announcement shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (8)

FS

@fahsai · 1d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

YR

@yodrak · 2d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

CS

@chaisaetae · 2d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

AB

@arthitb · 2d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

BK

@bua.k · 2d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

BT

@banktawan · 3d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

NA

@nokairin · 3d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

SP

@somchai_p · 4d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

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Related news

Festivals· TAT Newsroom· 1d

Songkran festival forecast: record crowds expected

Festivals· Chiang Mai News· 2d

Yi Peng lantern festival confirms 2026 dates

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Organising committee statements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Government promotion budgets for this event were increased
#songkran#chiangmai