Festivals

Loy Krathong 2026: Sukhothai attendance above 200K?

64%+5
23d left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ156 if YES wins

56%85%

Volume

Ɓ229K

Traders

97

Liquidity

Ɓ27K

Closes

17 Sept 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.64
CostƁ6.40
Trading feeƁ0.16
Max payoutƁ10 · +56%
payout multiple1.56x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ6.56

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 64% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved up 5 pts on an organizer announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 75%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

61%
  • Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators

Key developments

  1. Early ticket sales shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

PS

@peaks · 2d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 3d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

KW

@kanya.w · 5d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

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Related news

Festivals· TAT Newsroom· 1d

Songkran festival forecast: record crowds expected

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Yi Peng lantern festival confirms 2026 dates

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Organising committee statements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • •Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • •Government promotion budgets for this event were increased
#loy-krathong#sukhothai