Festivals

Songkran 2027: over 1M tourists celebrating in Chiang Mai?

24%-3
3mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ417 if YES wins

13%35%

Volume

Ɓ56K

Traders

73

Liquidity

Ɓ6.7K

Closes

15 Dec 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.24
CostƁ2.40
Trading feeƁ0.13
Max payoutƁ10 · +317%
payout multiple4.17x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ2.53

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 24% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 3 pts on social media trends. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 90%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

90%
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions

Key developments

  1. Early ticket sales shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

YR

@yodrak · 17h

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

BK

@bua.k · 23h

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

MS

@malisrisuk · 3d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

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Related news

Festivals· TAT Newsroom· 1d

Songkran festival forecast: record crowds expected

Festivals· Chiang Mai News· 2d

Yi Peng lantern festival confirms 2026 dates

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Organising committee statements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Government promotion budgets for this event were increased
#songkran#chiangmai