Festivals

Will Songkran 2026 set a record tourism value?

45%-2
11mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ222 if YES wins

37%58%

Volume

Ɓ342K

Traders

357

Liquidity

Ɓ41K

Closes

2 Aug 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.45
CostƁ4.50
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +122%
payout multiple2.22x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.67

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 45% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 2 pts on early ticket sales. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 64%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

86%
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions

Key developments

  1. A sponsor update shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (3)

BK

@bua.k · 1d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

MS

@malisrisuk · 1d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

NP

@nongploy · 4d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

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Related news

Festivals· TAT Newsroom· 1d

Songkran festival forecast: record crowds expected

Festivals· Chiang Mai News· 2d

Yi Peng lantern festival confirms 2026 dates

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Organising committee statements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Government promotion budgets for this event were increased
#songkran#revenue