Crypto

Bitcoin to close higher on 27 Aug?

51%-5
10mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ196 if YES wins

40%61%

Volume

Ɓ20K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ2.4K

Closes

22 Jun 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.51
CostƁ5.10
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +96%
payout multiple1.96x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.27

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 51% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 5 pts on a whale wallet movement. Top-trader positioning is balanced, and our model confidence is 64%.

Bull case

  • Spot ETF inflows have been net positive for six straight weeks
  • Post-halving supply dynamics have historically supported price 12–18 months out

Bear case

  • Macro tightening could drain risk appetite from speculative assets
  • Regulatory overhang remains in two of the largest markets

Confidence

84%
  • Historical base rate for similar thresholds over comparable windows is ~45–55%
  • This market tends to gap on US macro print days

Key developments

  1. A large ETF flow print shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (6)

YR

@yodrak · 14h

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

TK

@tanawatk · 2d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

BT

@banktawan · 4d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

TK

@tanawatk · 4d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

GL

@grace.l · 4d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

BT

@banktawan · 5d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves using the CoinGecko USD price at 12:00 UTC on the closing date.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: CoinGecko closing prices (UTC). Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Historical base rate for similar thresholds over comparable windows is ~45–55%
  • •This market tends to gap on US macro print days
  • •Post-halving supply dynamics have historically supported price 12–18 months out
#daily