Culture

Will Wat Arun visitors exceed pre-COVID peak this year?

79%-2
8mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ127 if YES wins

71%92%

Volume

Ɓ14K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.7K

Closes

15 May 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.79
CostƁ7.90
Trading feeƁ0.12
Max payoutƁ10 · +27%
payout multiple1.27x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ8.02

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 79% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 2 pts on social media trends. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 58%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

69%
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year

Key developments

  1. A sponsor update shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (8)

PS

@peaks · 14h

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

SP

@somchai_p · 14h

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

SP

@somchai_p · 16h

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

WK

@wink · 20h

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

YR

@yodrak · 1d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

MR

@mayr · 1d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

MS

@malisrisuk · 4d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

YR

@yodrak · 4d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Fine Arts Department records. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
#temple