Culture

Will National Muay Thai Day draw 50K+ spectators?

60%-5
3mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ167 if YES wins

46%69%

Volume

Ɓ13K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.6K

Closes

15 Dec 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.60
CostƁ6.00
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +67%
payout multiple1.67x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ6.17

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 60% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 5 pts on an organizer announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 64%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

67%
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year

Key developments

  1. A sponsor update shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

MP

@minta.p · 1d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

MR

@mayr · 1d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

KW

@kanya.w · 2d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

BK

@bua.k · 2d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Fine Arts Department records. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
#muay-thai