Politics

Will the Senate reform bill pass this year?

42%+7
2mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ238 if YES wins

28%52%

Volume

Ɓ176K

Traders

146

Liquidity

Ɓ21K

Closes

30 Oct 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.42
CostƁ4.20
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +138%
payout multiple2.38x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ4.37

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 42% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 7 pts on a cabinet reshuffle rumor. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 68%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

71%
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter

Key developments

  1. A cabinet reshuffle rumor shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (6)

BT

@banktawan · 1d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

PN

@ploykn · 2d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

NA

@nokairin · 3d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

SP

@somchai_p · 4d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

GL

@grace.l · 4d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

NA

@nokairin · 5d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

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Related news

Politics· Thai PBS World· 1h

Coalition talks intensify ahead of censure debate next week

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Parliament records · EBC. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •The measure has broad public support in recent surveys
#reform