Politics

Will a Shinawatra family member hold a cabinet post in Dec 2026?

68%+0
7mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ147 if YES wins

60%94%

Volume

Ɓ22K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ2.6K

Closes

1 Apr 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.68
CostƁ6.80
Trading feeƁ0.15
Max payoutƁ10 · +47%
payout multiple1.47x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ6.95

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 68% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved up 0 pts on a cabinet reshuffle rumor. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 88%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

61%
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway

Key developments

  1. Coalition negotiations shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

AB

@arthitb · 1d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

NP

@nongploy · 2d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

SP

@somchai_p · 2d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

NA

@nokairin · 3d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

MR

@mayr · 3d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 3d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

KW

@kanya.w · 4d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

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Related news

Politics· Thai PBS World· 1h

Coalition talks intensify ahead of censure debate next week

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Parliament records · EBC. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway
  • •The measure has broad public support in recent surveys
#cabinet