Politics

Will a new political party top the next national poll?

34%-1
1mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ294 if YES wins

15%42%

Volume

Ɓ12K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.4K

Closes

18 Oct 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.34
CostƁ3.40
Trading feeƁ0.16
Max payoutƁ10 · +194%
payout multiple2.94x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.56

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 34% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 1 pts on a parliamentary session. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 84%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

64%
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions

Key developments

  1. A new opinion poll shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (6)

TP

@tle.p · 2d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

MR

@mayr · 3d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

CS

@chaisaetae · 4d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

BK

@bua.k · 4d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

GL

@grace.l · 4d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

MR

@mayr · 5d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

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Related news

Politics· Thai PBS World· 1h

Coalition talks intensify ahead of censure debate next week

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Parliament records · EBC. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •Economic tailwinds reduce the incentive for any defection before the vote
#poll