Politics

LIVE

Will any cabinet minister resign before Songkran?

28%+6
6d left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ357 if YES wins

20%44%

Volume

Ɓ18K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ2.1K

Closes

31 Aug 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.28
CostƁ2.80
Trading feeƁ0.14
Max payoutƁ10 · +257%
payout multiple3.57x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ2.94

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 28% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 6 pts on a parliamentary session. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 84%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

89%
  • Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway

Key developments

  1. A cabinet reshuffle rumor shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

PS

@peaks · 9h

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

PS

@peaks · 1d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

GL

@grace.l · 2d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

YR

@yodrak · 2d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

TP

@tle.p · 2d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

NP

@nongploy · 3d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

PT

@preawt · 5d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

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Related news

Politics· Thai PBS World· 1h

Coalition talks intensify ahead of censure debate next week

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Parliament records · EBC. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Market-implied probability has tracked poll releases closely this quarter
  • •The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway
  • •Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month
#cabinet