Politics

Will the Prime Minister survive the next no-confidence vote?

70%+8
2mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ143 if YES wins

62%95%

Volume

Ɓ48K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ5.8K

Closes

1 Nov 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.70
CostƁ7.00
Trading feeƁ0.15
Max payoutƁ10 · +43%
payout multiple1.43x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ7.15

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 70% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved up 8 pts on a new opinion poll. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 69%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

83%
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions

Key developments

  1. A cabinet reshuffle rumor shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (8)

NS

@napat_trades · 1d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

NS

@napat_trades · 1d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

WK

@wink · 1d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

MP

@minta.p · 1d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

RM

@ratchata · 1d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

YR

@yodrak · 1d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

PS

@peaks · 2d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

NS

@napat_trades · 4d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

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Related news

Politics· Thai PBS World· 1h

Coalition talks intensify ahead of censure debate next week

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Parliament records · EBC. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
#censure#government