Politics

Will the opposition file a censure motion this session?

64%-7
1mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ156 if YES wins

53%73%

Volume

Ɓ583K

Traders

331

Liquidity

Ɓ70K

Closes

4 Oct 2026

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.64
CostƁ6.40
Trading feeƁ0.16
Max payoutƁ10 · +56%
payout multiple1.56x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ6.56

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 64% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 7 pts on coalition negotiations. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 73%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

58%
  • The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions

Key developments

  1. A new opinion poll shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

PS

@peaks · 4h

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

NP

@nongploy · 1d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

KW

@kanya.w · 1d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

FS

@fahsai · 1d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

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Related news

Politics· Thai PBS World· 1h

Coalition talks intensify ahead of censure debate next week

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Parliament records · EBC. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway
  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month
#censure