Politics

Will military conscription be abolished this parliamentary term?

19%+5
5mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ526 if YES wins

1%27%

Volume

Ɓ9.9K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.2K

Closes

24 Jan 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.19
CostƁ1.90
Trading feeƁ0.11
Max payoutƁ10 · +426%
payout multiple5.26x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ2.01

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 19% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 5 pts on coalition negotiations. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 91%.

Bull case

  • Coalition whips express confidence; two smaller parties signalled support this week
  • Latest NIDA Poll shows approval up 4 points month-over-month

Bear case

  • Two coalition partners publicly split on the key clause
  • Senate scrutiny adds procedural risk and possible delay

Confidence

61%
  • Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway

Key developments

  1. A cabinet reshuffle rumor shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (8)

PT

@preawt · 5h

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

KW

@kanya.w · 14h

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

BK

@bua.k · 1d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

FS

@fahsai · 2d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

SP

@somchai_p · 2d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

FS

@fahsai · 3d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

SP

@somchai_p · 4d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

BT

@banktawan · 5d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

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Related news

Politics· Thai PBS World· 1h

Coalition talks intensify ahead of censure debate next week

Resolution criteria

Resolves based on official records of Parliament and publications in the Royal Gazette.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Parliament records · EBC. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Similar measures passed 7 of the last 10 attempts under comparable coalitions
  • •The parliamentary calendar leaves roughly six sitting weeks of runway
  • •The measure has broad public support in recent surveys
#military#reform