Weather

PM2.5 'unhealthy' days in Chiang Rai above 60 this burning season?

50%-9
6mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ200 if YES wins

40%62%

Volume

Ɓ477K

Traders

514

Liquidity

Ɓ57K

Closes

28 Feb 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.50
CostƁ5.00
Trading feeƁ0.18
Max payoutƁ10 · +100%
payout multiple2.00x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.18

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 50% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 9 pts on monsoon monitoring. Top-trader positioning is balanced, and our model confidence is 86%.

Bull case

  • Seasonal forecast models lean warmer than the 30-year average
  • The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher

Bear case

  • Monsoon onset is forecast earlier than usual this season
  • Persistent cloud cover in recent weeks has capped extremes

Confidence

85%
  • Model spread is narrow — most ensemble members agree on the sign
  • Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings

Key developments

  1. Monsoon monitoring shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

NP

@nongploy · 9h

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

BT

@banktawan · 1d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

MP

@minta.p · 2d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

PS

@peaks · 5d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

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Related news

Air Quality· The Nation· 16h

PM2.5 hits hazardous levels across northern Thailand

Resolution criteria

Resolves on official Thai Meteorological Department station data for the specified location and period.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Meteorological Department station data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Model spread is narrow — most ensemble members agree on the sign
  • •Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings
  • •Seasonal forecast models lean warmer than the 30-year average
#smoke#north