Weather

Bangkok to hit 41°C or higher in April 2026?

35%-5
8mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ286 if YES wins

17%43%

Volume

Ɓ14K

Traders

48

Liquidity

Ɓ1.7K

Closes

14 May 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.35
CostƁ3.50
Trading feeƁ0.16
Max payoutƁ10 · +186%
payout multiple2.86x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.66

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 35% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 5 pts on an updated TMD forecast. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 84%.

Bull case

  • Seasonal forecast models lean warmer than the 30-year average
  • The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher

Bear case

  • Monsoon onset is forecast earlier than usual this season
  • Persistent cloud cover in recent weeks has capped extremes

Confidence

80%
  • TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability
  • Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings

Key developments

  1. An updated TMD forecast shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

PT

@preawt · 17h

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

TP

@tle.p · 1d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

PT

@preawt · 3d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

GL

@grace.l · 3d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

FS

@fahsai · 3d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

TK

@tanawatk · 4d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

MS

@malisrisuk · 5d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on official Thai Meteorological Department station data for the specified location and period.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Meteorological Department station data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability
  • •Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings
  • •Seasonal forecast models lean warmer than the 30-year average
#heat#summer