Weather

Drought emergency declared in the Northeast this year?

31%-8
11mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ323 if YES wins

22%45%

Volume

Ɓ242K

Traders

181

Liquidity

Ɓ29K

Closes

16 Aug 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.31
CostƁ3.10
Trading feeƁ0.15
Max payoutƁ10 · +223%
payout multiple3.23x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.25

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 31% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved down 8 pts on monsoon monitoring. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 90%.

Bull case

  • Seasonal forecast models lean warmer than the 30-year average
  • The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher

Bear case

  • Monsoon onset is forecast earlier than usual this season
  • Persistent cloud cover in recent weeks has capped extremes

Confidence

60%
  • Model spread is narrow — most ensemble members agree on the sign
  • Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings

Key developments

  1. The latest satellite imagery shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (6)

GL

@grace.l · 6h

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

TP

@tle.p · 2d

This resolved YES last year under similar conditions.

NP

@nongploy · 3d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

BK

@bua.k · 3d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

YR

@yodrak · 4d

Sold my position too early 😭 lesson learned.

FS

@fahsai · 5d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on official Thai Meteorological Department station data for the specified location and period.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Meteorological Department station data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Model spread is narrow — most ensemble members agree on the sign
  • •Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings
  • •Last year set a similar precedent in the same window
#drought