Weather

Bangkok to hit 41°C or higher in April 2027?

32%+3
5mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ313 if YES wins

22%45%

Volume

Ɓ419K

Traders

273

Liquidity

Ɓ50K

Closes

13 Feb 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.32
CostƁ3.20
Trading feeƁ0.15
Max payoutƁ10 · +212%
payout multiple3.13x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.35

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 32% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 3 pts on an updated TMD forecast. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 81%.

Bull case

  • Seasonal forecast models lean warmer than the 30-year average
  • The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher

Bear case

  • Monsoon onset is forecast earlier than usual this season
  • Persistent cloud cover in recent weeks has capped extremes

Confidence

87%
  • Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings
  • TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability

Key developments

  1. A regional model run shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (7)

OJ

@ohmjaidee · 2d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

PN

@ploykn · 3d

The odds don't reflect the latest news at all. Loading up on Yes here.

IK

@isankid · 4d

ข่าวนี้น่าจะดันราคาขึ้นอีกเวฟ ถือยาว 👍

NA

@nokairin · 4d

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

FS

@fahsai · 4d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

TK

@tanawatk · 4d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

BT

@banktawan · 4d

AI summary is spot on this time. Bull case is strong.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on official Thai Meteorological Department station data for the specified location and period.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Thai Meteorological Department station data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Urban heat island effects add ~1°C to Bangkok readings
  • •TMD station data for this window has high historical reliability
  • •The current ENSO pattern historically pushes extremes higher
#heat#summer