World

Will oil stay below $90/barrel this year?

64%-7
10mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ156 if YES wins

56%82%

Volume

Ɓ228K

Traders

283

Liquidity

Ɓ27K

Closes

5 Jul 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.64
CostƁ6.40
Trading feeƁ0.16
Max payoutƁ10 · +56%
payout multiple1.56x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ6.56

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 64% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved down 7 pts on a trade data release. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 64%.

Bull case

  • Export orders have improved for three consecutive months
  • Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year

Bear case

  • A global slowdown remains the key risk to external demand
  • Household debt near record highs limits consumption growth

Confidence

82%
  • The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times
  • BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar

Key developments

  1. The latest BOT minutes shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

RM

@ratchata · 21h

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

NS

@napat_trades · 1d

ไม่เอาน่า ผมว่าโอกาสแค่ครึ่งเดียว

WK

@wink · 2d

Whales have been accumulating all morning. Watch the tape.

MP

@minta.p · 5d

Been watching this one for weeks — this is the entry point.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on official data from the Bank of Thailand, NSO, SEC, or SET as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Reuters / AP wire confirmation. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The last three prints of this series beat or missed consensus 2 of 3 times
  • •BOT and NSO release dates are the main catalysts on the calendar
  • •Tourism receipts are running ahead of the same period last year
#oil