Tourism

Will Thailand extend visa-free stays to 90 days?

31%+3
10mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ323 if YES wins

22%46%

Volume

Ɓ658K

Traders

336

Liquidity

Ɓ79K

Closes

17 Jul 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.31
CostƁ3.10
Trading feeƁ0.15
Max payoutƁ10 · +223%
payout multiple3.23x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ3.25

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 31% — traders lean No. Over the last week the probability moved up 3 pts on early ticket sales. Top-trader positioning is skewed bearish, and our model confidence is 74%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

68%
  • The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators

Key developments

  1. Social media trends shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

NP

@nongploy · 1h

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

TP

@tle.p · 2d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

NA

@nokairin · 2d

Following this market since 62%. Smooth sailing so far.

WK

@wink · 5d

This is free money before the deadline, change my mind.

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Related news

Tourism· TAT Newsroom· 19h

Thailand targets 40M tourists with new campaign

Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: TAT arrivals data. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •The event has hit comparable targets in 3 of the last 5 editions
  • •Organizer guidance and hotel bookings are the best leading indicators
  • •Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
#visa