Entertainment

Will a Thai film earn ฿100M+ at the box office this year?

56%+2
5mo left

Ɓ100 → Ɓ179 if YES wins

43%64%

Volume

Ɓ124K

Traders

169

Liquidity

Ɓ15K

Closes

13 Feb 2027

Contracts
Buy YesƁ0.56
CostƁ5.60
Trading feeƁ0.17
Max payoutƁ10 · +79%
payout multiple1.79x
Position after fill10 × YES
TotalƁ5.77

Balance: Ɓ10,000 · Read rules ↓

AI Research Brief

Markets price this at 56% — traders lean Yes. Over the last week the probability moved up 2 pts on an organizer announcement. Top-trader positioning is skewed bullish, and our model confidence is 89%.

Bull case

  • Early ticket sales and social buzz are tracking well above last year
  • Government promotion budgets for this event were increased

Bear case

  • Weather risk during the event window could suppress turnout
  • Crowd-control restrictions may cap official attendance figures

Confidence

86%
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year

Key developments

  1. Early ticket sales shifts odds this week
  2. Analysts split as the deadline approaches
  3. What the latest data means for this market

Comments (4)

PS

@peaks · 1h

Any chance this gets delayed again? That's the real risk.

PT

@preawt · 2d

Respectfully, the crowd is wrong on this. The base rate says otherwise.

FS

@fahsai · 3d

Adding on every 2-point dip. Easy trade.

MP

@minta.p · 4d

Chart looks like a textbook head and shoulders. Careful.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves on organizer-confirmed figures, award records, or official government statistics as applicable.

Market rules

This market resolves YES if the stated condition is met by the closing date, and NO otherwise. Trading settles in DooDoo Baht (Ɓ) at Ɓ1.00 per winning contract.

Settlement & source

Source: Official award/chart announcements. Positions are marked to the latest crowd price. Contracts settle at Ɓ1.00 or Ɓ0.

Reasoning

  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •Flight search data to Thailand is up double digits year-over-year
  • •Government promotion budgets for this event were increased
#box-office